Global nuclear arsenals growing and modernizing, SIPRI reports

The world is witnessing an expansion and modernization of nuclear arsenals, reversing decades of progress toward disarmament, according to a new report from the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI).

The number of nuclear warheads available for deployment has risen, with an estimated 9,745 out of 12,187 warheads held by the nine nuclear-armed states in early 2026. Approximately 4,012 of these were deployed on missiles or aircraft, and between 2,100 and 2,200 were kept in a state of high alert, primarily by Russia and the United States.

SIPRI Director Karim Haggag warned that an increased reliance on nuclear weapons in national defense strategies could significantly heighten nuclear risks. "Influential voices, including some heads of state and government, are propagating nuclear weapons as a guarantee against attacks by hostile states," he stated.

While Russia and the U.S. still possess over 80% of the world's nuclear weapons, China is expanding its arsenal at the fastest rate among all nuclear powers. China's stockpile grew to an estimated 620 nuclear weapons between 2025 and 2026. The report projects China could possess as many intercontinental ballistic missiles as Russia or the U.S. by the end of the decade.

The report also noted that the modernization programs of the U.S. and Russia have faced challenges, with the U.S. program experiencing planning and funding issues. The planned U.S. missile defense system, "Golden Dome," is estimated to cost around $1.2 trillion over the next 20 years. Western sanctions and the costs of the war in Ukraine have slowed Russia's modernization efforts.

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Influential voices, including some heads of state and government, are propagating nuclear weapons as a guarantee against attacks by hostile states. A stronger dependence of national defense and security strategies on nuclear weapons could significantly increase nuclear risks.