Gold Price Projection: Expected to Rise Next Week Amid Geopolitical and Economic Factors

Gold prices are anticipated to climb next week, with projections indicating a rise to Rp 2,690,000 per gram. Ibrahim Assuaibi, Director of PT Traze Andalan Futures, stated that if global gold prices strengthen past the second resistance level of US$4,348 per troy ounce, the precious metal could reach Rp 2,780,000 per gram.

This forecast suggests a continuation of the upward trend from the closing price of Rp 2,670,000 per gram on Friday, July 3, 2026. However, Assuaibi also noted a potential downside, predicting a drop to Rp 2,650,000 per gram if a correction occurs. A further decline could see prices fall to Rp 2,550,000 per gram, with the second support level at US$4,000 per troy ounce.

Assuaibi identified three key factors influencing the potential rise in gold prices. Firstly, geopolitical developments in the Middle East, particularly the easing of tensions after a U.S.-Iran memorandum of understanding, could lead to increased oil supply and a significant drop in oil prices. This scenario typically boosts gold prices as investors seek safe-haven assets.

Secondly, U.S. Federal Reserve policy plays a crucial role. Assuaibi believes that internal economic conditions, including unemployment figures and falling oil prices, will push inflation closer to the 2% target. This could lead the Fed to maintain its current benchmark interest rate, a move he predicts could cause gold prices to surge, potentially reaching US$5,000 per troy ounce by the end of the year.

Finally, supply and demand dynamics are significant. Global central banks collectively increased their gold bar purchases by 41 tons in May, with China adding 10 tons and Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan also reporting stock increases. Assuaibi views the recent dip in gold prices as an opportunity for central banks to continue accumulating the commodity, anticipating a price jump once the Strait of Hormuz reopens and oil prices decline.

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Artinya, pelemahan harga emas belakangan menjadi kesempatan Bank Sentral Global terus membeli komoditas tersebut.