Government body warns of possible disasters caused by 'Super El Niño' and calls for precautionary measures

Brazil's federal government is preparing for a potentially severe El Niño event, with authorities estimating a 70% chance it will be strong or "extra-strong" and bring significant impacts across the country. While final predictions are pending, technical experts expect more assertive estimates by July.

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The expectation is that the scenario will be similar to what happened in 2023/2024, one of the strongest in recent years.

A May 19th official letter from the National Center for Monitoring and Alertas de Desastres Naturais (Cemaden) to the Civil Affairs Office highlighted projections of more intense heat waves. The situation could worsen in September and October, leading to extended dry periods and exacerbating heat. This poses a heightened risk of wildfires in the Pantanal and Amazon biomes, with potential consequences for public health.

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In the North and Northeast regions, the trend is for reduced rainfall and increased temperatures, which favors periods of more severe drought and greater pressure on water resources.

Cemaden's projections indicate reduced rainfall and increased temperatures in the North and Northeast regions, intensifying drought and straining water resources. The Southeast and Center-West may see their rainy seasons compromised by high temperatures, affecting hydroelectric reservoirs and increasing hydrological risks. Conversely, the South faces the threat of intense rainfall, leading to floods, flash floods, and landslides.

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In the Southeast and Center-West, the phenomenon may compromise part of the rainy season, accompanied by high temperatures, affecting the recovery of hydroelectric reservoirs and increasing hydrological risk.

In response, Cemaden issued six recommendations to the federal government. These include strengthening the monitoring of rainfall and drought forecasts, ensuring meteorological radars function optimally, and re-evaluating high-risk areas like occupied slopes and riverbanks. The center also stressed the need for better coordination among federal, state, and municipal entities for risk analysis, alerts, public communication, and response efforts.

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In the South, the concern is with more intense and voluminous rains. Technicians state that there is a greater chance of floods, flash floods, and waterlogging, in addition to slope instability.