Government's Goal is 'Controlled Opposition,' Alliance of Özel, İmamoğlu, and Yavaş Could Disrupt Plan: Berk Esen

The ruling party's strategy is to foster 'controlled opposition,' aiming to leave the Turkish opposition fragmented, leaderless, and without candidates, according to political scientist Assoc. Prof. Berk Esen. He argues that the path to unseating the government lies in an alliance between Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu, Istanbul Mayor Ekrem İmamoğlu, and Ankara Mayor Mansur Yavaş.

Esen told Cumhuriyet that the opposition's responsibility is to ensure voters are not left without leadership, organization, or candidates. He noted that the government actively works to divide different social groups and parties to hinder opposition unity. For instance, the government highlights figures like Öcalan for Kurdish voters and Kılıçdaroğlu for Alevi voters, anticipating that nationalist voters will adopt a harder stance on the Kurdish issue.

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The government's plan is to leave the opposition leaderless, disorganized, and without candidates. The responsibility of opposition politicians is not to leave the opposition voters leaderless, disorganized, and without candidates.

Regarding the upcoming July 9 deadline in İmamoğlu's trial, which coincides with his defense in other cases and the NATO Summit, Esen expects new moves against the opposition. He believes the government anticipates positive outcomes from the summit, which will legitimize President Erdoğan's regime by bringing world leaders to Ankara. Erdoğan will likely present himself as a global leader who commands respect from NATO.

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I cannot say that a harsh move will not come against both the İBB case and Özgür Özel after the summit. This case has been ongoing for 3.5 months; those on trial have made strong defenses, and some have retracted statements from informants. Therefore, the case is not progressing as the government desires. It might stem from a desire to demoralize İmamoğlu and restrict his right to defense. Steps to increase judicial pressure on Özel and the opposition may be taken after July 9.

Esen also commented on the internal crisis within the Republican People's Party (CHP) following the annulment decision. He believes the current leadership delayed taking action on the absolute annulment, a risk that had been discussed since May 2025. He feels the developments should have been debated more publicly, and the efforts of Kılıçdaroğlu and his team should have been revealed. The steps to be taken on the day the decision was made were not clear, and plans are now being implemented slowly.

He suggested that Özgür Özel, the CHP leader, should follow a three-step plan: first, establish a new political party that is close to the CHP but more inclusive, incorporating young people and women; second, have a backup party ready in case of snap elections; and third, ensure the party has the right to enter elections, which could be lost if a congress is not held by July 26.

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I think the Özel administration was late in taking action on absolute annulment, as we have been discussing this risk since May 2025. There were signs that an absolute annulment decision would be made during this period. With such a risk, developments should have been discussed more publicly, and the work done by Kılıçdaroğlu and his team on this issue should have been revealed. I think they were insufficient in these matters. At least, the steps to be taken on the day the decision was made were not clear.