Guatemala Forecasts 4.1% Economic Growth for 2026

Guatemala's economy is expected to expand by 4.1% in 2026, a forecast bolstered by the normalization of international fuel prices after a recent agreement between the United States and Iran. The Central Bank of Guatemala's 'Macroeconomic Context and Perspectives 2026' report emphasizes the nation's strong macroeconomic stability, with its economy primarily relying on the services, trade, and manufacturing sectors.

Álvaro González Ricci, president of the Central Bank, stated that Guatemala's economic outlook surpasses regional trends and is more optimistic than recent International Monetary Fund (IMF) estimates, which had projected 3.8% growth due to Middle East conflict concerns. To support the 4.1% growth projection, the bank anticipates a 6% rise in exports by year-end.

Furthermore, tax revenues are performing better than expected, with collections projected to reach approximately 120 billion quetzales (about $15.75 billion). González Ricci highlighted the US-Iran agreement as a positive development for Guatemala, counteracting previous risks and positioning the country favorably with stable exchange rates and reserves.

Johny Gramajo, the bank's economic manager, noted the immediate positive reaction in financial markets, with Wall Street opening up 1% and crude oil prices falling to $73 per barrel from nearly $100 a month prior. Gramajo expressed confidence in meeting official targets, maintaining the year-end inflation projection at 3.75%, within the Monetary Board's target range. Guatemala's economy grew by 4.3% in 2025 and 3.7% in 2024, according to Central Bank data.