Gulf leaders' attendance at Khamenei funeral signals distrust of Washington

Gulf leaders made a significant physical presence at the funeral of Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei in Tehran, a move that speaks volumes amidst ongoing diplomatic efforts by the U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio to reassure Gulf allies about their security under Washington's protection.

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If one picture is worth a thousand words, then that presence was worth a thousand of Rubio's previous speeches.

Rubio's diplomatic tour aimed to ensure that U.S. allies in the region did not misinterpret signals from the ongoing U.S.-Iran negotiations in Switzerland. However, the decision by leaders from countries including Saudi Arabia to attend Khamenei's funeral in person, sitting alongside delegations from Russia, China, Hezbollah, and Hamas, appears to overshadow Rubio's message. This physical attendance signifies a direct communication channel being maintained with Iran, serving as a hedge against the uncertainty stemming from Washington's perceived inconsistency in guaranteeing security.

The article posits a fundamental difference between states that comply out of fear and those that comply out of trust. For decades, the U.S. built its Middle East dominance on a combination of military might and security promises. However, the article argues that America's current structural problems are evident. Washington's implicit guarantee of Lebanon's sovereignty through an MOU is contrasted with Israel's continued air strikes on Beirut without Pentagon approval, a contradiction witnessed by Gulf states on their television screens.

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In international relations analysis, there is a fundamental difference between a country that obeys out of fear and one that obeys out of trust.

When a protector cannot control its own allies, its security assurances lose credibility. The Gulf leaders' attendance in Tehran is framed not as hostility towards the U.S., but as a form of insurance. It reflects a strategic move to establish direct communication with Iran, mitigating risks associated with Washington's inconsistent security commitments.

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When the protector is unable to control its own allies, its promise of protection loses substance.

A poignant moment during the funeral was the visible grief of Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, Iran's Parliament Speaker and a key negotiator in the Swiss talks. His tears are interpreted not just as personal sorrow but as a symbol of the burden he carries as Iran navigates its future diplomatic course amidst these shifting regional alliances.

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The presence of Gulf leaders in Tehran is not a statement of hostility towards America. It is insurance.