Gulf War's economic fallout: Italian families face 29 billion euro hit from rising energy and fuel costs

Italian families and businesses are bracing for a significant financial blow, with an estimated 29 billion euros in additional costs expected in 2026 as a direct consequence of the Gulf War. This projection, released by the studies office of CGIA Mestre, assumes current prices for electricity, gas, and fuel will remain elevated through the end of the year.

The most substantial impact will be felt at the pump, with gasoline and diesel prices set to increase household expenses by 13.6 billion euros, a jump of 20.4% compared to 2025. Electricity costs are also projected to rise by 10.2 billion euros, a 12.9% increase, while natural gas prices will add an estimated 5 billion euros to the burden, marking a 14.6% rise.

Regionally, Lombardy is expected to shoulder the largest share of these increased energy costs, facing an additional burden of 5.4 billion euros, a 15.1% increase from 2025. Emilia-Romagna follows, with an extra cost of 3 billion euros (up 16.1%), and Veneto will see costs rise by nearly 2.9 billion euros (up 15.8%).

In terms of fuel expenses specifically, the CGIA studies office anticipates a national increase of approximately 13.6 billion euros for gasoline and diesel in 2026, a 20.4% rise. Basilicata is predicted to experience the sharpest percentage increase in fuel costs at 21.6%, amounting to an additional 118 million euros. Campania and Puglia are close behind, both facing a 21.3% increase.

The surge in electricity bills is expected to add 10.2 billion euros nationally, a 12.9% increase, following a 51.2% rise in electricity prices in recent weeks. Natural gas bills are also set to climb, with an additional 5 billion euros expected nationally due to a 71.6% increase in the price per megawatt-hour over the past five months.