Gulf War: When Everyone Claims Victory

The recent Gulf War involving Israel, the United States, and Iran presents a unique paradox: all three principal parties are claiming victory. Israel asserts it successfully degraded Iran's military and nuclear capabilities. Simultaneously, Washington reports its military operations met strategic objectives. Iran, in turn, contends it withstood the combined military pressure and emerged from the conflict with a stronger negotiating position than before.

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War is the continuation of politics by other means.

This situation prompts a re-evaluation of what constitutes victory in international relations. As highlighted by Prussian strategist Carl von Clausewitz in "On War," war is a continuation of politics by other means. Military success, therefore, is merely a tool; the ultimate measure lies in whether the political objectives behind the war are achieved and translated into sustained political advantage.

The conflict offers critical lessons for the U.S. and Israel, demonstrating their impressive military technological superiority. However, it also underscores the limitations of military might as an instrument for imposing political outcomes. Destroying an adversary's military installations does not automatically compel a change in their political will. This aligns with Robert A. Pape's findings in "Bombing to Win," which suggest air power is effective at destroying targets but less so at coercing political change.

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Air power is highly effective at destroying physical targets, but far more difficult to use to coerce an opponent to change its political decisions.

For Iran, the lesson is equally significant. Nate Swanson's article in Foreign Affairs warns that Iran's claimed victory could become a burden if not managed wisely. The nation's primary challenge shifts from winning the war to winning the peace. This is particularly relevant as discussions arise about leveraging Iran's strategic position in the Strait of Hormuz, suggesting that the true test of this conflict's outcome lies in the post-war political landscape.

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The victory claimed by Tehran can turn into a burden if not managed wisely.