Heat: Karl Lauterbach expects more heat-related deaths

Former German Health Minister Karl Lauterbach believes the number of heat-related deaths is likely higher than official figures suggest, citing the Robert Koch Institute's (RKI) conservative estimation methods.

Lauterbach explained that the RKI's approach, while defensible for tracking relative changes, probably underestimates the true impact of heat. He noted that fatalities are rarely due to classic heatstroke, but rather heat exacerbates existing conditions, potentially leading to strokes or other critical events that might not be directly attributed to heat without the extreme temperatures.

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That means that the number of heat deaths is likely underestimated.

The RKI reported 12,500 heat-related deaths between April 6 and August 2, with a significant portion occurring during a particularly hot week in late June when temperatures exceeded 41 degrees Celsius. This figure marks 2026 as a record year for heat-related fatalities, surpassing the previous high in 2018.

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Most people do not die from classic heatstroke in the heat. High heat stress can, for example, contribute to existing atrial fibrillation leading to a stroke. Without the heat, it might not have happened.

To address the growing issue of heat-related mortality, Lauterbach supports a constitutional amendment to ensure adequate funding for heat protection measures. He argued that many local governments are too indebted to finance necessary adaptations independently.

Lauterbach urged the CDU and CSU parties to support the proposed amendment to the Basic Law, emphasizing the substantial financial commitment required for effective heat protection strategies.

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Effective heat protection costs a lot of money. That is why I consider the initiative of Federal Environment Minister Carsten Schneider (SPD) to think about a constitutional amendment to be correct.