Hezbollah ‘hinting’ at escalation against Lebanese army but still undecided, expert tells 'Post'

An expert on Hezbollah's political strategy suggests that the group's recent attack on the Lebanese Army in Mansouri was a deliberate "hint" signaling a potential escalation should the group feel threatened. Eyal Zisser, Vice-Rector at Tel Aviv University, told The Jerusalem Post that the incident, which killed Sgt. Maj. Ahmad Sami Khalil and wounded two others when an army vehicle exploded, was Hezbollah's way of communicating its readiness to escalate.

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Hezbollah’s attack on the Lebanese Army in Mansouri over the weekend was the terror group’s way of “hinting” that it would escalate if threatened.

While initial reports in Lebanon theorized an Israeli airstrike, the IDF confirmed that Hezbollah was responsible for planting the explosive device. The military noted that the Lebanese Army vehicle had entered the Security Zone without prior coordination, as required by existing mechanisms. This confirmation refutes claims of an Israeli strike and places the responsibility squarely on Hezbollah for the attack on its own country's military.

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It should be noted that the Lebanese Army vehicle entered the Security Zone without prior coordination with the IDF, as required according to the existing coordination mechanism.

Zisser believes that Hezbollah's next moves will be heavily influenced by the ongoing diplomatic efforts and any agreements reached between Beirut and Jerusalem. He indicated that while talks are progressing, "nothing real" has materialized yet. However, if the Lebanese government were to take action against Hezbollah, retaliation could be expected. Zisser also noted that Hezbollah has a history of extreme actions, including assassinations, making future developments unpredictable. He downplayed immediate concerns of a civil war, suggesting Hezbollah would only risk such action if the Lebanese military directly opposed them or if a peace agreement between Lebanon and Israel were signed, which he deems unlikely at present.

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If the Lebanese government takes action, in such a case, we should expect retaliation from Hezbollah, but what will it be?