Hezbollah's role in Middle East conflict crucial for Iran's regional influence

The Middle East remains a volatile region, with a fragile ceasefire in the Iran war increasingly tenuous as all parties exchange threats and engage in hostilities. On June 8, the U.S. blamed Iran for an attack helicopter crash off Oman and launched strikes on Iranian sites, with further strikes continuing into Tuesday. Iran retaliated with attacks on U.S. sites in Bahrain and Kuwait.

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From Iran's perspective, a key priority at present is ensuring that Hezbollah is included in any potential political agreements and peace negotiations.

The conflict is not confined to U.S.-Iran tensions. Despite an apparent ceasefire, the Israeli army struck targets in Beirut's suburbs over the weekend following new rocket attacks by Iran-backed Hezbollah. Tehran responded with missile strikes on Israeli territory, which Israel then countered with attacks on targets within Iran. This ongoing conflict between Hezbollah and Israel has significantly disrupted U.S. President Donald Trump's attempts to broker a peace agreement with Tehran.

Middle East expert Arman Mahmoudian of the University of South Florida emphasizes that from Iran's perspective, ensuring Hezbollah's inclusion in any political agreements and peace negotiations is a top priority. Tehran views Hezbollah not as a mere bargaining chip, but as a key component of its regional strategy. Mahmoudian warns that if Hezbollah continues to face Israeli attacks while Iran appears to abandon it, the consequences could be severe for Iran, potentially undermining the confidence of other regional allies like the Houthis in Yemen and Shiite militias in Iraq.

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For Iran, the issue at stake is its regional influence.

Hezbollah's involvement in the current conflict stems from its loyalty to Iran, particularly after the killing of Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei in an Israeli airstrike on February 28. Following Khamenei's death, the Lebanese Hezbollah militia fired rockets at Israel, officially entering the war on Iran's side. Israel responded with airstrikes on southern Beirut and other areas in Lebanon, expanding the conflict into its northern neighbor. The Israeli military also established a "security zone" in southern Lebanon, from where it claims Hezbollah launches attacks.

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If Hezbollah continues to come under Israeli fire while at the same time giving the impression that Tehran is abandoning it, this could have significant consequences for Iran and undermine the confidence of other actors in the region allied with Iran, such as the Houthis in Yemen or Shiite militias in Iraq.

Lebanese health authorities report that approximately 3,600 civilians have been killed in Lebanon since hostilities began over 100 days ago. The Shiite militia Hezbollah, founded in the early 1980s during the Lebanese Civil War and following Israel's invasion of Lebanon, operates as a multifaceted organization.

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After all, Hezbollah became involved in this conflict primarily out of loyalty to Iran and attacked Israel following the killing of Khamenei.