Historian Harold James: 'The US is shooting itself in the head'

Historian Harold James sees the current global landscape as a period of profound epochal change, marked by a redistribution of power. He observes that while the United States was instrumental in shaping the post-WWII global order, its relative influence is now waning rapidly. This decline is compounded by growing doubts about American reliability as an ally and concerns over its domestic economic and democratic stability.

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The US position is currently disintegrating rapidly. Doubts are arising as to whether Americans are good allies. Added to this are concerns about the US economy and US democracy.

Contrary to the idea of a single hegemonic power replacing the US, James dismisses the notion that China will fill this role. He points to China's significant demographic challenges, slowing economic growth, and substantial bad debt as limiting factors. Instead, he sees potential in developing nations like Brazil and India, as well as European states, which are showing positive development and a commitment to international cooperation.

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China has a huge demographic problem. The burdens of an aging population are already noticeable, economic growth is slowing down, and China is sitting on a lot of bad debt.

Reflecting on historical precedents like the Congress of Vienna in 1815, which brought extended stability to Europe, James is uncertain if such a system could be replicated today. He highlights the greater heterogeneity of the modern world compared to the 19th century, where a broader consensus on fundamental principles existed despite ideological differences. While acknowledging the current ineffectiveness of the UN system and the desire for a better alternative, James expresses pessimism about its immediate realization.

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The world is much more heterogeneous today than in 1815. Back then, despite all ideological differences between the Russian Tsarist Empire and liberal Great Britain, there was a broad consensus on fundamental principles.