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🇮🇱 Israel /Economy & Trade

Hormuz closure cripples fertilizer trade, causing ripple effect on food security - analysis

From Jerusalem Post · (1d ago) English Critical tone

Summarized and contextualized by DistantNews.

TLDR

  • The closure of the Strait of Hormuz due to the Iran war has severely disrupted the global fertilizer trade, impacting food security.
  • Fertilizer prices have surged 20-30% and tanker traffic has collapsed by over 90%, forcing farmers worldwide to make planting decisions under unprecedented conditions.
  • While a recent ceasefire may reopen the strait, agricultural economists warn that the reprieve might be too late to fully mitigate the damage to the 2026 planting season, with ripple effects on food prices expected within months.

The ongoing conflict that led to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz has extended its damaging reach far beyond the immediate geopolitical theater, striking at the very foundation of global food production: fertilizer. Within weeks of the waterway's closure in late February, fertilizer prices skyrocketed by 20 to 30 percent, while tanker traffic through Hormuz, a critical artery for approximately one-third of globally traded fertilizers, plummeted by over 90 percent.

This logistics bottleneck has no viable workaround in the short term.

— Maximo ToreroFood and Agriculture Organization Chief Economist, commenting on the impact of the Hormuz closure on fertilizer supply.

This drastic disruption has placed farmers across continents, from India to East Africa, in a precarious position. They are now forced to make crucial planting decisions for the upcoming season under conditions vastly different from just sixty days prior. The surge in war-risk insurance premiums for vessels navigating the Hormuz region has further exacerbated the issue, making transit prohibitively expensive and leading to rerouted or delayed shipments. This scarcity is hitting at a critical juncture, just as farmers are preparing for their pre-planting purchases.

The war in West Asia is already being felt far beyond the region. It is reflected in rising fertilizer prices in rural India and in the shifting planting decisions of farmers across Africa and well beyond.

— Dr. Himanshu PathakDirector general of the International Crops Research Institute for the Semi-Arid Tropics, describing the global impact of the conflict.

While a recent ceasefire announced on April 8, 2026, between the United States, Iran, and their allies, with the Strait of Hormuz set to reopen under Iranian military management, offers a glimmer of hope, agricultural economists caution that it may arrive too late to salvage the 2026 planting season. The impact of this logistical bottleneck, for which there is no short-term workaround, is already being felt globally. As Dr. Himanshu Pathak, director general of the International Crops Research Institute for the Semi-Arid Tropics, noted, rising fertilizer prices in rural India and shifting planting decisions in Africa are direct reflections of the war's far-reaching consequences. The world has witnessed the devastating effects of fertilizer shortages before, as seen with Russia's 2022 invasion of Ukraine, which crippled supply and sent food prices soaring. The current situation, with a third of global fertilizer supply cut off at the start of the Northern Hemisphere planting season, presents a significant threat to global food security.

Farmers are facing more expensive fertilizers alongside rising fuel costs affecting the entire agricultural value chain, including irrigation and transport.

— Maximo ToreroSpeaking at a UN press briefing on March 26 about the combined costs facing farmers.
DistantNews Editorial

Originally published by Jerusalem Post. Summarized and contextualized by our editorial team with added local perspective. Read our editorial standards.

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