Hormuz stalemate won’t change unless one side blinks

A familiar pattern of escalation is unfolding in the Strait of Hormuz, with Iranian drones targeting ships and the US responding with airstrikes on Iranian coastal targets. Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) retaliates with missile and drone attacks on US allies in the Gulf, claiming to target American military facilities. These actions occur while Qatari and Pakistani mediators attempt to maintain diplomatic channels.

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This strategic waterway is one of the country’s deterrent assets.

Hormuz provides Iran with critical leverage over global energy flows. Mohsen Rezaei, a military adviser to Iran's Supreme Leader, stated that the "strategic waterway is one of the country’s deterrent assets." The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) in Washington noted that US officials reported Iran blaming an "errant part" of its system for recent attacks. ISW suggests this allows Iran to sustain talks and pursue economic benefits while the IRGC maintains control over the strait.

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allows the regime to sustain talks and attempt to reap potential economic benefits while the IRGC continues to enforce Iran’s control over the strait.

However, ISW clarifies that the differences between negotiators and the IRGC are tactical, concerning the means (negotiations versus military action) rather than strategic objectives. The US insists Iran publicly acknowledge the strait's openness to all commercial traffic and cease vessel attacks. Tehran, however, rejects a return to the pre-war situation of unfettered navigation.

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the differences between the negotiators and the IRGC are one of immediate tactical means – negotiations or military action – not strategic ends.

Israeli analyst Danny Citrinowicz observed that US operations appear focused on imposing costs on Iran rather than altering the strategic reality in the strait. He believes maritime traffic will only normalize if Iran and Oman reach an arrangement to reduce tensions or if the US ceases efforts to route tankers through the southern channel against Iran's objections. The stalemate persists, with neither side currently willing to concede.

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US operations seem focused on imposing costs on Iran rather than fundamentally changing the strategic reality in the strait.