Hormuz vessel traffic subdued despite diplomacy; security incidents weigh on shipping

Vessel traffic through the critical Strait of Hormuz remained subdued over the weekend, even as diplomatic initiatives aimed at easing Gulf tensions continued. Fresh security incidents near Oman have persisted in weighing on shipping activity, according to a report by S&P Global.

On August 2, only 17 vessel crossings were recorded through the Strait of Hormuz, following 15 on August 1 and 17 on July 31. Traffic through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait also saw a decline during the same period, with fewer than 40 observable transits per day. Overall, July recorded 848 vessel transits through the Strait of Hormuz, averaging 27 crossings daily. However, activity significantly slowed in the latter half of the month, with daily transits dropping to an average of 17 after a peace agreement memorandum collapsed and retaliatory attacks between the United States and Iran intensified.

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Traffic remained depressed despite US President Donald Trump's assertion that a deal was 'imminent' amid renewed diplomatic efforts, as well as reports of Oman and Iran agreeing to jointly manage traffic through the strait

The report noted that traffic remained depressed despite U.S. President Donald Trump's assertion that a deal was "imminent" and reports of Oman and Iran agreeing to jointly manage traffic. July's traffic declined from 917 transits in June, which had been the highest monthly volume since the conflict began. Inbound traffic constituted 48% of total crossings in July, up from 46% in June, while Iran-linked vessels increased to 53% of total traffic from an average of 42% in June.

Security risks in the region continue to be a concern. S&P Global Commodities at Sea data indicated that 10 crude tankers carrying Iraqi crude successfully exited the Strait of Hormuz in July, transporting approximately 648,000 barrels per day, a 27% decrease from 883,000 barrels per day in June. Meanwhile, traffic through the U.S. naval blockade remained largely stable, with an average of 41 vessels per day crossing for the week ending August 2. Traffic through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait was broadly unchanged from June, averaging 42 crossings per day in July. However, northbound traffic saw a sharp weakening in recent days, dropping to just 10 vessels on August 2, the lowest daily count since May 26, potentially indicating weaker vessel traffic or increased "AIS-dark" activity amid ongoing security concerns.

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Northbound traffic was particularly weak, dropping to just 10 vessels on August 2, the lowest daily count since May 26. The decline may point to either weaker vessel traffic or an increase in AIS-dark activity amid ongoing security concerns