How Ghalibaf’s visit could redefine Iran-Iraq ties amid regional tensions - analysis

Iran's Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf traveled to Iraq this week, a visit analysts suggest could reshape bilateral ties amidst regional tensions and Iraq's efforts to rein in Iranian-backed militias. Ghalibaf's trip followed a similar visit by IRGC head Ismail Qaani, who also discussed the militias and the Strait of Hormuz.

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Iran is pushing proposals to avert a confrontation between Iraq’s government and Tehran-aligned armed factions over their weapons, with Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf taking the effort to Baghdad ahead of a September 30 disarmament deadline.

Ghalibaf's presence in Baghdad occurred alongside a symbolic photo of him in front of a map of the Strait of Hormuz, with his head positioned to visually block the vital waterway. This image, deliberately created, underscores Iran's unwavering stance on the strait, a key transit point for global oil exports. Ghalibaf, a prominent Iranian official known for actively promoting Iran's interests abroad, has previously made high-profile trips during regional conflicts.

Reports indicate that Iran is actively proposing solutions to prevent a clash between the Iraqi government and Tehran-aligned armed factions over their weapons, particularly as a September 30 disarmament deadline approaches. Iraqi sources suggest Ghalibaf's visit extended beyond parliamentary discussions to address critical political and security issues, focusing on the fate of militia arms. Iraq's constitution prohibits armed factions that threaten other countries, a point reportedly raised with Ghalibaf by Iraq's National Security Advisor Qasim al-Abboudi.

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Iraqi sources said Ghalibaf’s visit to Baghdad on Wednesday goes well beyond its stated parliamentary purpose, with talks focused on political and security issues – chiefly the fate of armed factions’ weapons as the deadline to bring all arms under state control approaches.

While Iraqi Prime Minister Ali al-Zaidi hosted Ghalibaf for discussions on bilateral ties, the underlying tension remains Iran's desire to preserve militia influence. Iraq, meanwhile, aims to restore its oil export capacity, which has been impacted by Iran's actions. The success of Ghalibaf's diplomatic efforts in bridging these differing objectives remains uncertain.

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Iraq’s constitution bars the presence of armed factions that pose a threat to other countries, Baghdad’s National Security Advisor Qasim al-Abboudi confirmed to Iran’s Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf in a Thursday meeting in the Iraqi capital.