How will Beijing judge Trump’s take on Taiwan? Look for 1 critical factor

From Beijing's perspective, the United States' policy towards Taiwan remains the most critical barometer of the bilateral relationship. As President Xi Jinping has emphasized, any misstep regarding Taiwan, the most sensitive issue in China-US ties, risks escalating tensions to confrontation or even conflict. Therefore, the upcoming actions of the Trump administration concerning arms sales to Taiwan will be scrutinized intensely. Analysts here see arms sales as the "most important indicator" for Beijing in assessing Washington's intentions. The recent summit between Xi and Trump, which yielded an agreement on the need for strategic stability, offers a potential window for de-escalation. It is anticipated that Trump may exercise restraint on future weapons sales, a move that would be viewed favorably by Beijing and contribute to a more stable, albeit carefully managed, relationship.

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Beijing’s assessment of whether US President Donald Trump can “properly handle” the Taiwan issue and US-China relations will largely come down to arms sales to the island, analysts said.