Hungarian press reports a possible blackout in Romania: How real is the danger and what trap does next winter hide?

Reports in the Hungarian press have raised concerns about Romania's energy supply for the upcoming winter, reigniting discussions about the nation's energy security. The warnings stem from Romania's ongoing negotiations with the European Commission to delay the closure of a coal-fired unit at Complexul Energetic Oltenia, a move initially agreed upon in the National Recovery and Resilience Plan (PNRR).

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I would not talk about a risk of blackout in Romania, but rather about greater pressure on the energy system during peak consumption periods.

Romanian authorities argue that closing this lignite capacity by the August deadline could jeopardize energy adequacy, particularly during the cold season. This concern is amplified by significant delays in projects intended to replace conventional energy production. The new Ișalnița power plant, originally slated for completion in 2020, is not expected to begin testing until the end of the year. Similarly, the Mintia power plant faces delays, and the Cernavodă nuclear power plant will operate with only one reactor next winter. Consequently, each remaining coal-fired power group has gained strategic importance.

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Romania has committed to reducing coal production through the decarbonization calendar, but the alternatives that should replace it are not yet fully functional.

Despite the Hungarian media's portrayal of potential serious energy supply problems, Romanian energy experts largely dismiss the scenario of a widespread blackout. Silviu Gresoi, an energy expert, explained that the primary issue is not a complete failure of supply but rather increased pressure on the energy system during peak demand periods. He noted that while Romania committed to reducing coal production as part of its decarbonization roadmap, the alternative energy sources are not yet fully operational.

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New gas capacities, renewables, and storage solutions have not advanced fast enough to fully cover the withdrawal of coal groups.

Gresoi elaborated that new gas-fired plants, renewable energy sources, and storage solutions have not advanced quickly enough to compensate for the withdrawal of coal-fired units. Therefore, while CE Oltenia may not represent Romania's long-term energy future, it remains a crucial temporary safety net, especially during winter. The potential postponement of certain unit closures is thus viewed as a necessary measure for ensuring grid stability in the immediate term, even as the country navigates its transition to cleaner energy.

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CE Oltenia no longer represents Romania's energy future, but it remains a temporary safety capacity, especially in winter when consumption is high.