Iceland referendum on EU talks: Poll shows razor-thin margin

Icelanders are closely divided on whether to continue negotiations for European Union membership, according to the latest poll conducted by Maskína. The survey reveals that 50.4% of respondents intend to vote 'yes' in the upcoming referendum, while 49.6% plan to vote 'no'. This razor-thin margin places the outcome firmly within the margin of error, making it impossible to predict the result with certainty.

The poll, which surveyed 3,274 individuals aged 18 and older from across the country, indicates a significant level of indecision, with 170 respondents still undecided and 82 declining to answer. This close division mirrors previous surveys, highlighting the contentious nature of the EU accession debate in Iceland.

Further analysis of the results shows subtle demographic differences. Men appear slightly more inclined to vote 'no' (51.4%) compared to women (47.6%). Respondents aged 30–69 are more likely to support continued talks, whereas the youngest group (18–29) and the oldest (70+) show a greater tendency towards voting 'no'.

Geographically, the capital region remains significantly more favorable to 'yes' votes, with 56% of respondents there intending to vote in favor of continued negotiations. In contrast, only 40.5% of those in rural areas plan to vote 'yes'. Despite these regional differences, the overall gap between the 'yes' and 'no' camps remains remarkably small across most demographic segments.