IMF Raises Uzbekistan's Economic Growth Forecast for 2026

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has delivered a positive outlook for Uzbekistan's economy, revising its GDP growth forecast for 2026 upward to 6.8%. This adjustment, an increase from the 6.2% projected in November, signals continued economic dynamism within the Central Asian nation. The IMF mission's concluding statement highlights that economic activity remained robust in the first quarter of 2026, bolstered by ongoing reforms, consistent investment, strong remittances, and favorable gold prices.

Despite the optimistic growth projections, the IMF also noted an upward revision in inflation expectations, now forecasting it at 6.8%, a slight increase from the previous 6.5%. This adjustment is attributed to rising global oil prices. However, the Fund anticipates that inflationary pressures may be mitigated by a slower pace of increases in administered prices and the implementation of temporary transport subsidies. The Central Bank's tight monetary policy is expected to guide inflation towards its 5% target by 2027.

Furthermore, the IMF has increased its forecast for Uzbekistan's external debt, projecting it to reach $51.8 billion by the end of 2026, compared to the earlier estimate of $47.8 billion. While the global economic landscape presents some uncertainties, particularly due to geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, Uzbekistan's economic trajectory appears strong. The nation's ability to leverage reforms, investment, and commodity prices, while managing inflationary pressures, will be key to sustaining this positive momentum. This forecast underscores Uzbekistan's growing economic significance and its integration into the global financial system.