India monsoon slows; below-average rain seen over next two weeks

India's annual monsoon is progressing slower than usual, with weather officials predicting below-average rainfall for the next two weeks, particularly in central and northern regions. This slowdown is attributed to "western disturbances," weather systems originating from the Mediterranean Sea that can disrupt the monsoon's advance.

The monsoon is critical for India's agricultural sector, delivering approximately 70% of the nation's annual rainfall. This rain is essential for replenishing water sources in an economy where nearly half of farmland lacks irrigation and about half the population relies on agriculture for their livelihood.

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Western disturbances have slowed the monsoon's advance, and it could take a few more days before it moves into central India.

Concerns are rising that the delayed and reduced rainfall could impact the planting of key summer-sown crops, including rice, cotton, soybeans, and pulses. While the monsoon typically covers the entire country by mid-July, its onset this year was delayed, and initial rainfall figures for early June were 26.5% below normal.

Officials noted that the monsoon is expected to regain momentum in the last week of June, potentially alleviating planting concerns if early July rains are adequate. However, the forecast for significantly below-normal rainfall in central and northern regions during the upcoming fortnight remains a point of concern for agricultural output.

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With most summer crop-sowing taking place in July, below-normal rainfall in June should not significantly affect planting, provided early July rains are adequate.