DistantNews
Support us
India's sugar output down 18% from peak as demand rises
🇴🇲 Oman /Economy & Trade

India's sugar output down 18% from peak as demand rises

From Times of Oman · () English

Summarized and contextualized by DistantNews.

At a glance

Analysis Documents & data Context piece
  • India's sugar production has fallen approximately 18% from its FY22 peak, reaching a four-year low in FY25.
  • Domestic sugar consumption has simultaneously climbed to record levels, creating a tight supply-demand situation.
  • Buffer stocks are at multi-year lows, and the industry's outlook depends on the upcoming crop cycle and government policies.

India's sugar industry is grappling with a significant supply-demand imbalance, as production has plummeted from its peak while domestic consumption continues to surge. A sector note by Exencial Research Partners highlights that sugar output has declined around 18% from its Fiscal Year 2022 peak, even as domestic demand has hit record highs.

Output has slipped ~18% from FY22 peak, while domestic demand keeps climbing. Buffer stocks are now back to multi-year lows

— Exencial Research PartnersThe report highlights the sharp decline in sugar output and rising domestic demand, leading to depleted buffer stocks.

The report, titled "India Sugar: The Squeeze, The Cycle, The Shift," indicates that India's sugar production fell to 29.3 million tonnes (MT) in FY25. This marks an 8% year-on-year decrease and represents a four-year low. In stark contrast, domestic consumption reached a record 29.0 MT in FY24, demonstrating sustained growth in demand.

This widening gap between supply and demand has significantly narrowed the industry's buffer stocks, which are now at multi-year lows. The report notes that the "cushion between supply and demand has shrunk to ~0.3 MT in FY24, the tightest in a decade." Sugar production peaked at 35.8 MT in FY22, subsequently declining to 32.8 MT in FY23, 32.0 MT in FY24, and further to 29.3 MT in FY25.

The cushion between supply and demand has shrunk to ~0.3 MT in FY24, the tightest in a decade

— Exencial Research PartnersThe report details the narrowing gap between sugar supply and demand in India.

The future outlook for the industry is heavily contingent on the upcoming crop cycle and crucial government policy decisions. "With FY25 cane output below ISMA's earlier estimate, the cycle now hinges on FY26 monsoon & ethanol diversion policy," the report states.

With FY25 cane output below ISMA's earlier estimate, the cycle now hinges on FY26 monsoon & ethanol diversion policy

— Exencial Research PartnersThe report emphasizes the dependence of the industry's future on weather patterns and government policies.

On the export front, while India's sugar export revenues remain substantially below their FY23 peak, there are signs of stabilization. Export revenues in the March 2026 quarter saw a significant 34% quarter-on-quarter increase, reaching $593 million. This indicates a potential recovery in trade activity. The report also points to a notable shift in export destinations, with African and Gulf nations now comprising the majority of shipments, replacing former key buyers like Indonesia and Bangladesh.

FY26 export revenues tracked sideways for three quarters, then surged +34% QoQ in Mar-26 -- the biggest sequential jump since the FY22 boom unwound

— Exencial Research PartnersThe report notes a recent surge in India's sugar export revenues.
DistantNews Editorial

Originally published by Times of Oman. Summarized and contextualized by our editorial team with added local perspective. Read our editorial standards.

More Stories

From Our Blog