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🇮🇩 Indonesia /Environment & Climate

Indonesia Warns of Strong El Nino Impacts in 2026, Citing Drought and Fire Risks

From Republika · () Indonesian

Translated from Indonesian, summarized and contextualized by DistantNews.

At a glance

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  • Indonesia's National Development Planning Minister Rachmat Pambudy warned of strong El Nino impacts in 2026, including water scarcity and increased forest fires.
  • Below-normal rainfall from July to October is expected to disrupt clean water availability, boost hot spots, and raise respiratory illness cases.
  • The government is prioritizing preparedness in agriculture, forestry, health, energy, and water resources, with coordinated responses to mitigate national stability risks.

Indonesia faces significant challenges as a strong El Nino is set to intensify in 2026, according to National Development Planning Minister Rachmat Pambudy. The phenomenon is predicted to bring rainfall below normal levels from July through October, directly impacting various sectors.

The minister warned that this dry spell will disrupt clean water availability, increase the number of hot spots, and likely lead to a rise in acute respiratory infection (ISPA) cases. He emphasized the need for a coordinated government response to prevent these impacts from destabilizing the nation and hindering development targets. Key sectors like agriculture, forestry, health, energy, and water resources will receive priority attention.

"The potential for rainfall is currently below normal, occurring throughout the July to October period. In fact, its impact has already been proven up to today: clean water availability is disrupted, hot spots are starting to emerge, ISPA cases will inevitably occur, and forest and land fires are beginning to increase," Rachmat stated at a press conference in Jakarta on Tuesday, August 4, 2026.

The potential for rainfall is currently below normal, occurring throughout the July to October period. In fact, its impact has already been proven up to today: clean water availability is disrupted, hot spots are starting to emerge, ISPA cases will inevitably occur, and forest and land fires are beginning to increase.

— Rachmat PambudyMinister of National Development Planning (PPN)/Head of Bappenas explaining the expected impacts of El Nino.

The Meteorology, Climatology, and Geophysics Agency (BMKG) has been anticipating El Nino since early 2026. The agency began predicting a dry season coinciding with El Nino in March, and the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) confirmed its active phase on June 2, 2026. Analysis indicates the phenomenon has now entered a strong phase.

BMKG identified the most vulnerable regions as those south of the equator, including East Nusa Tenggara, West Nusa Tenggara, Bali, Java (especially coastal areas), southern Sumatra, and South Papua. To combat the effects, BMKG is promoting adjusted planting seasons, drought-resistant crop varieties, and climate field schools for farmers and weather schools for fishermen. The agency is also coordinating with ministries on weather modification operations to bolster water reserves, support irrigation, aid hydropower generation, and dampen peatlands to reduce fire risks.

El Nino that we need to watch out for is when it occurs simultaneously with the dry season, which makes the dry season drier and longer in duration.

— Teuku Faisal FathaniHead of BMKG explaining the severity of El Nino during the dry season.
DistantNews Editorial

Originally published by Republika in Indonesian. Translated, summarized, and contextualized by our editorial team with added local perspective. Read our editorial standards.

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