Indonesian Glaciers on Puncak Jaya May Vanish by 2030 Due to Global Warming

Jakarta, Indonesia – Scientists forecast that the ice on Puncak Jaya, located in the Sudirman Range of Papua, will melt away by 2030. This loss, marked by the disappearance of its two remaining glaciers, Carstensz and East Northwall Firn, will place Indonesia among three nations, alongside Venezuela and Slovakia, to lose all its glaciers due to global warming.

Over the past 44 years, Puncak Jaya has experienced a staggering 97% loss of its ice cover, diminishing its four glaciers. Researchers attribute this rapid melt directly to global warming, with the El Niño phenomenon intensifying the process in Indonesia. El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) creates drier and warmer conditions in Papua, leading to less snowfall at high altitudes and increased melting.

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In Papua, conditions become drier and warmer during El Niño, meaning less snow on the highlands and greater melt. Both can be death knells, especially for small glaciers

"In Papua, conditions become drier and warmer during El Niño, meaning less snow on the highlands and greater melt. Both can be death knells, especially for small glaciers," said geologist Mike Kaplan of the Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, who studies past glacier, climate, and landscape history. Kaplan noted the 2015-2016 El Niño event significantly impacted Indonesia's glaciers.

Donaldi Permana, a climate researcher leading glacier monitoring at Indonesia's Meteorology, Climatology, and Geophysics Agency (BMKG), explained that global warming raises the freezing point altitude, causing precipitation to fall more frequently as rain instead of snow. "This condition accelerates melting rather than adding to glacier mass," Permana told GlacierHub.

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This condition accelerates melting rather than adding to glacier mass

Permana detailed that the rate of vertical glacier thinning increased nearly fivefold, from about one meter per year to 5.3 meters per year during the 2015-2016 El Niño. Analysis of a 32-meter ice core taken in 2010, used by Permana's team to trace regional climate variability over the past half-century, confirmed ENSO's influence on glacier changes in Papua. The research indicates a significant and worsening trend of ice loss, particularly during El Niño periods.

Modeling based on these trends predicts the eventual disappearance of the glaciers. Glacier area has shrunk dramatically from approximately 19.3 square kilometers in 1850 to just 0.16 to 0.23 square kilometers between 2022-2024. This represents a reduction from an area equivalent to about 3,500 football fields to only about 40. Permana warned that some models suggest Indonesia's glaciers could vanish within the next year, especially with the increased likelihood of a strong El Niño in the latter half of 2026. "With the increasing probability of a strong El Niño in the second half of 2026, the loss of Indonesia's glaciers is likely to occur in 2026-2027," he stated.

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With the increasing probability of a strong El Niño in the second half of 2026, the loss of Indonesia's glaciers is likely to occur in 2026-2027