Indonesian Vice Foreign Minister Maps Three Iran War Scenarios, From Peace to Nuclear Escalation

Indonesia's Vice Foreign Minister Anis Matta views the conflict involving Iran, Israel, and the United States as being in a critical, undecided phase. He has identified three major scenarios that will shape the Middle East's geopolitical landscape and the future of global Islamic defense cooperation: peace, a broader escalation of war, or a persistent 'no peace, no war' stalemate. Matta stated in a recent interview that the current situation is a struggle between the peace scenario and the escalation scenario, with the outcome uncertain. He observed that if the conflict concludes peacefully in the near future, Iran appears to be in a relatively stronger position. This is because key objectives initially set by Israel and the United States have not been achieved, the Iranian regime remains stable, and its military capabilities are sufficient to withstand external pressure. "If the measure of victory is the target set at the beginning, then that target was not achieved. Because of that, there is a perception that Iran won the first round," Matta said. However, he cautioned that the war is far from over, pointing to ongoing Israeli attacks in Lebanon and other Iranian territories. Matta interprets these actions as potential attempts to undermine peace negotiations. He also highlighted a significant shift in Iran's diplomatic stance, noting that for the first time, Tehran has included the issue of Lebanon in its negotiation agenda. Iran now views attacks on Lebanon as directly linked to its own security, thereby broadening the conflict's scope. "This means the conflict spectrum is widening. Iran is now saying there will be no peace talks if Israel continues to attack Lebanon," Matta explained, adding that such an expansion could complicate ongoing negotiation processes.

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If the measure of victory is the target set at the beginning, then that target was not achieved. Because of that, there is a perception that Iran won the first round.