INM forecasts August-October 2026 to be warmer than normal in Tunisia

Tunisia is bracing for a warmer-than-normal season as the National Meteorology Institute (INM) releases its seasonal forecast for August to October 2026. The institute's latest bulletin indicates a strong convergence among various seasonal prediction models, pointing towards higher temperatures as the most probable scenario.

Beyond the expected heat, the INM also anticipates a slight increase in precipitation compared to average levels across Tunisia. However, the institute cautions that regional variations are possible due to the inherent spatio-temporal variability of autumn rainfall. This transitional season, typically marked by a gradual cooling after summer and a rise in rainfall, especially in October, usually sees most precipitation in the North and Center, with lesser amounts in the South.

The INM provided specific data based on the 1991-2020 reference period to illustrate normal conditions. Average temperatures in August normally range from 25°C to 30°C in the North and Center, and 27°C to 33°C in the South. Rainfall in August is typically between 15 to 30 mm in the western North and Center, less than 8 mm in the South, and rarely exceeding 18 mm elsewhere.

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For the August-September-October 2026 season, the different seasonal forecasting models show a strong convergence towards the trend of warmer-than-normal temperatures as the most likely scenario.

For September, normal average temperatures are projected between 21°C and 27°C in the North and Center, and 26°C to 29°C in the South. September rainfall increases due to late-summer thunderstorms, generally ranging from 38 to 80 mm in the North and Center, and 9 to 34 mm in the South.

October forecasts normal average temperatures between 17°C and 23°C in the North and Center, and 22°C to 24°C in the South. October rainfall typically ranges from 38 mm to 84 mm in the North, potentially reaching 116 mm in Tabarka, with lower amounts, generally not exceeding 55 mm, in the Center and South.

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the scenario of a slight increase in precipitation compared to the norms is favored over Tunisia. However, regional variations remain possible due to the high spatio-temporal variability of autumn precipitation.