Insecurity, political violence biggest threats to Nigeria’s 2027 elections — IRI

Nigeria's upcoming 2027 general elections face significant challenges from persistent insecurity and political violence, which the International Republican Institute (IRI) identifies as the primary threats to voter participation and public confidence.

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The most acute vulnerability identified by our election observation assessment mission is security. Persistent insecurity and election-related political violence erode confidence in the electoral process and depress voter participation.

Daniel Twining, President of IRI, stated in Abuja that these security concerns could undermine the credibility of the electoral process, even with robust technical preparations. "Where voters, candidates, and observers cannot participate without fear of violence or intimidation, technical improvements and legal safeguards have only limited effect," Twining explained during a press conference on the institute's pre-election assessment mission.

The IRI's assessment highlighted that Nigeria's electoral credibility hinges not only on administrative capacity but also on citizens' ability to vote without fear and trust that their ballots will be counted accurately. The institute engaged with over 65 stakeholders during its mission.

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Where voters, candidates, and observers cannot participate without fear of violence or intimidation, technical improvements and legal safeguards have only limited effect.

Twining emphasized the global significance of Nigeria's democratic trajectory, noting that "Nigeria is the continent’s largest democracy and its political trajectory carries significance well beyond its borders." The resilience of its institutions and the quality of electoral competition have regional and global implications.

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Nigeria is the continent’s largest democracy and its political trajectory carries significance well beyond its borders.

Beyond security, the IRI identified political consolidation within the ruling party and the fragmentation of opposition parties as key factors potentially deepening public distrust in electoral institutions. This dynamic is unfolding in a political landscape considerably transformed since the 2023 elections. Despite these challenges, Nigeria retains foundational strengths for democratic competition, including established electoral bodies, active civil society, and a multi-party system. However, public perception, particularly concerning the 2023 election's results transmission and collation, continues to shape confidence in the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) for 2027.

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The experience of 2023 continues to shape perceptions of INEC, particularly with respect to results transmission and collation. In 2027, electoral credibility will depend not only on administrative capacity, but very much on the transparent exercise of institutional authority.