'Intense' West Africa rains now five times more likely, scientists say

West Africa is now five times more likely to experience intense rainfall events compared to the late 19th century, scientists from the World Weather Attribution (WWA) group have warned. This increased likelihood is directly linked to climate change driven by human greenhouse gas emissions.

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The intense 3-day rainfall event is now about 5 times more likely to occur today compared to a pre-industrial climate.

The warning comes after severe floods in late June, triggered by intense downpours, killed nearly 100 people across several coastal West African nations. The study found that the extreme 3-day rainfall event is now expected to occur every two to four years, a stark contrast to its previous rarity. The intensity of these rains has also increased by 4% to 23%.

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Such events, once considered rare, are now expected every two to four years in the region.

From June 20 to 22, exceptionally widespread and persistent downpours hit coastal areas from Ivory Coast to Nigeria. Some cities recorded over 140 millimeters of rain in less than 24 hours, overwhelming drainage systems and leading to flash floods. The floods resulted in at least 59 deaths in Ivory Coast, 34 in Ghana, and five in Togo.

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The heaviest rainfall was between 20 and 22 June when 'exceptionally widespread and persistent downpours' hit coastal areas from Ivory Coast to Nigeria.

Scientists highlighted the particular vulnerability of fast-growing coastal cities due to rapid urbanization in flood-prone areas. They issued an urgent call to action for Gulf of Guinea states, recommending investments in drainage infrastructure, early-warning systems, and safer housing to adapt to future extreme weather events.

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Gulf of Guinea states to 'urgently adapt for future extremes', including investments in drainage infrastructure, early-warning systems and safer housing.