Iran aims to drive US out of Middle East through economic and military pressure

The United States is intensifying its economic warfare strategy in an attempt to force Iran into compliance, but analysts suggest this approach is unlikely to succeed. Ali Vaez, an expert, outlines three primary reasons why the strategy is flawed. Firstly, Iran has consistently found ways to bypass sanctions over the past 47 years, even when facing severe economic crises, and maintains trade relations with its 15 neighboring countries. While the US can inflict economic damage, the Iranian regime has shown a willingness to pass this pain onto its own population.

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The strategy will not work for three reasons.

Secondly, China stands as Iran's largest trading partner. For the US to completely halt Iran's trade, it would necessitate an economic conflict with China, a step that former President Trump has hesitated to take. This geopolitical reality significantly complicates the effectiveness of US sanctions against Iran.

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First, no real economic turning point is foreseeable in Iran. Not even Cuba, a small isolated island, has given up despite a severe energy crisis as a result of the US blockade. Iran has 15 neighbors by land and sea and has always found a way to circumvent US sanctions over the past 47 years. Of course, the US can inflict economic damage on Iran. However, the regime in Tehran does not hesitate to pass this pain on to its own population.

Thirdly, the Iranian populace and leadership do not believe that yielding to US pressure will result in reduced demands. Past experiences, including military actions during negotiations and perceived betrayals in agreements, have fostered a deep distrust. This perception fuels Iran's strategy, which mirrors US actions and aims to demonstrate that any military engagement would carry immense risks and costs for the United States.

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Second, China is Iran's largest trading partner. If the US wants to completely stop trade with Iran, it must wage an economic war with China. And Trump has shied away from that recently.

Iran's strategic objective appears to be convincing both current and future US leaders of the prohibitive costs associated with military action. They aim to achieve this by showcasing their retaliatory capabilities, both economically and militarily, and by projecting an image of unpredictability akin to Trump's approach. A key leverage point Iran believes it possesses is its geographical position, specifically the ability to disrupt shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, thereby threatening global energy supplies and potentially triggering an energy emergency.

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Third, the Iranians do not believe that the US will reduce its pressure if they give in. They assume that Trump will demand even more then. He bombed the Iranians twice in the middle of negotiations. And they also feel betrayed regarding the ceasefire and the framework agreement.