Iran already has two nuclear weapons, does it have a third? - opinion

The United States' repeated assertion that "Iran cannot have a nuclear weapon" carries a deliberate strategic meaning, according to an analysis of the ongoing conflict. This phrasing, distinct from a simple non-proliferation commitment, implies the existence of three distinct nuclear weapons in Iranian hands.

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Iran cannot have a nuclear weapon.

Two of these weapons are described as already deployed and operational for over three months, with the third being the one publicly discussed. The analysis suggests the publicly acknowledged weapon is the least significant of the three.

The first deployed weapon is Iran's strategic control over the Strait of Hormuz. By threatening or closing this vital maritime passage, through which approximately 20% of global oil and LNG normally transits, Iran can collapse energy markets, trigger recessions in import-dependent economies, and force major global powers to the negotiating table. The article notes that traffic through Hormuz has significantly decreased since late February, leading to substantial increases in oil prices and US gasoline costs.

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The capacity to close, restrict, or even credibly threaten that passage is a strategic weapon in its own right, equivalent in effect to a tactical deterrent.

The second weapon is Iran's strategic geographic location at the convergence of Central Asia, the Levant, the Caucasus, and South Asia. This position, comparable only to Russia's, makes Iran a pivotal player in Eurasian geopolitics. The article implies that Iran's ability to leverage this position, similar to Russia's nuclear deterrent, is a key strategic asset.

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The world is absorbing the blast in commodity prices, freight insurance premiums, and central bank inflation forecasts.