Iran's missiles over Israel are telling a larger story - opinion

The current missile exchanges between Iran and Israel are more than just military actions; they represent signals of a profound historical transition unfolding across the Middle East. This confrontation is not merely another regional crisis but a critical test of the sustainability of Iran's political order, established over four decades ago following the Islamic Revolution. This system, built on principles of permanent resistance, proxy warfare, and managed instability, is now showing signs of exhaustion under significant internal and external pressures.

For decades, American policymakers have primarily viewed Iran through the lens of its nuclear program. However, much of the Middle East perceives the Islamic Republic differently. It is seen not as a conventional state pursuing typical national interests, but as a revolutionary system whose very legitimacy is intrinsically tied to ongoing confrontation. Recent events have starkly illuminated this distinction, placing it at the heart of the region's strategic dilemma.

The ongoing negotiations between the United States and Iran extend beyond the immediate issues of centrifuges, sanctions relief, or enrichment levels. Beneath the diplomatic maneuvers lies a deeper struggle for the future balance of power in the Middle East. The core question is whether the region can transition toward a stable order of sovereign states while the revolutionary model, born in 1979, continues to exert influence over the strategic landscape. The article poses a critical question: Is peaceful coexistence truly possible with a system that is structurally non-modern, internally fragmented, hollow in meaning, and has transformed from clerical rule into a militarized junta, inherently designed to produce crises?

Historically, modern Iran, under Reza Shah Pahlavi, emerged as a project of state restoration aiming to rebuild centralized authority and geopolitical coherence. Under both Reza Shah and his successor, Mohammad Reza Shah, Iran was a pillar of a predictable regional order. Religion was influential but not yet the primary organizing principle of geopolitical conflict or regional power projection. This equilibrium shattered with the Islamic Revolution of 1979, fundamentally altering the region's dynamics.