Iran avoiding strikes on Israel over fear of Hezbollah's collapse, former intelligence officer says

Iran may be refraining from striking Israel partly out of concern that a resumption of hostilities could trigger the collapse of Hezbollah in Lebanon, according to retired military Lt.-Col. (res.) Or Horowitz, a senior fellow at the Jewish People Policy Institute and former head of the military intelligence Hezbollah desk.

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Iran is refraining from striking Israel partially due to fears of Hezbollah's collapse in Lebanon if fighting resumes with Israel.

Horowitz observes a significant weakening of the Hezbollah organization, describing it as "in a weaker state than ever before." He notes a "historic change" taking shape in Lebanon, where the Lebanese Army is increasingly active, a contrast to its past inaction against Hezbollah. This strengthening of the Lebanese Army, alongside deep American involvement, is seen as influencing both Hezbollah's motivation and capabilities.

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A historic change is taking shape in Lebanon. Hezbollah is in a weaker state than ever before.

"Hezbollah, in my view, has been dramatically weakened," Horowitz stated. "It still exists; we have seen tragic fatalities, but I remind you that this is an organization that once dreamed of destroying the State of Israel, and now it is a pale shadow of those capabilities. The organization is an Iranian organization that operates according to Iranian interests, and in this case that is not an Israeli cliché. It really is subordinate."

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We are seeing the Lebanese Army, which in the past did nothing; its activity against Hezbollah was absolutely zero, and now that is changing. Alongside very deep American involvement, they are affecting both the motivation and the capabilities.

The former intelligence officer further explained that the Lebanese Army is gradually strengthening. "I think the Lebanese Army has the motivation, and now it needs to be given the tools gradually, while Hezbollah is being weakened, to carry out these actions," he said. He views the current U.S.-backed pilot program involving the Lebanese Army as the first test for the force in years and an opportunity for deep change in Lebanon, provided actions are taken correctly and American involvement continues.

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Hezbollah, in my view, has been dramatically weakened. It still exists; we have seen tragic fatalities, but I remind you that this is an organization that once dreamed of destroying the State of Israel, and now it is a pale shadow of those capabilities. The organization is an Iranian organization that operates according to Iranian interests, and in this case that is not an Israeli cliché. It really is subordinate.