Iran Bets on Pressure: Tehran Aims to Outlast U.S. by Targeting Trade and Energy

Iran is strategically leveraging the region's vital trade routes, shipping lanes, and energy infrastructure as pressure points, aiming to escalate the cost of confrontation for the United States and its allies. This approach, according to Gulf officials and analysts, is not about seeking a decisive military victory but rather a calculated strategy of calibrated escalation. The goal is to widen the conflict without triggering a full-scale war, thereby convincing adversaries that containing the crisis is more burdensome than accommodating Iran's demands, particularly concerning the Strait of Hormuz.

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Iran, from the beginning, has tried to out-escalate the United States by stretching out its escalation options so that it always has something new to bring every week -- a new geography, a new type of weapon, a new type of target.

Tehran's message is clear: unless Washington accepts a new status quo that grants Iran a more significant role in the Strait of Hormuz, the conflict risks spreading beyond the Gulf. By threatening multiple maritime chokepoints and energy assets, Iran believes it can strengthen its negotiating position. Michael Knights of the Washington Institute observes that Iran consistently seeks to "out-escalate" the U.S. by introducing new elements weekly, such as new geographies, weapons, or targets. Knights emphasizes that Iran's primary advantage lies not in its ability to harm the U.S. or Israel directly, but in its capacity to disrupt regional states and the global economy.

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Their big advantage is that they can hurt the regional states and the global economy.

Having already demonstrated its capability to disrupt traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, through which a significant portion of global oil consumption flows, Tehran has signaled that no maritime chokepoint is off-limits. Threats directed at the Red Sea and Saudi energy infrastructure suggest a broader effort to increase the financial burden of protecting global commerce while simultaneously testing Washington's tolerance for disruption. This strategy aligns with a belief among some Revolutionary Guards commanders that they "can get more" by exploiting what they perceive as President Donald Trump's reluctance to engage deeply in another Middle East conflict, especially with the U.S. midterm elections approaching.

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they can get more

This calculation underpins Tehran's negotiating strategy. President Trump had indicated that talks with Iran would occur after he called off an imminent attack, hoping to secure a deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. However, a senior Iranian source stated that Tehran's leadership has concluded that earlier attempts at flexibility have not yielded the desired results, and that Iran is not currently holding talks with the United States. The Iranian perspective suggests that by widening the war and increasing pressure, Trump will eventually yield, a stark contrast to Trump's belief that he can force Iran to the negotiating table through strong action.

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The Iranians...believe that by widening the war and increasing the pressure, he will eventually give in. Trump thinks he can hit the Iranians hard and bring them to the negotiating table, but they won't bend.