Iran gambles on Strait of Hormuz control to force US concessions

Iran's leaders are gambling that military pressure and control over the Strait of Hormuz will compel the United States to concede to their terms. They are banking on dwindling US weapon reserves, American war fatigue, and the economic impact of a disrupted strait, particularly with US congressional elections looming.

This strategy aims to force President Donald Trump's hand, with Iran believing he has no choice but to capitulate. They also see potential leverage in their Houthi allies' ability to widen the conflict and disrupt other trade routes. However, Iran's approach is fraught with peril. Trump has demonstrated a willingness to strike Iran's leadership and military, while oscillating between threats and overtures for talks.

Iran's own economy is fragile, battered by a US blockade and internal protests. Furthermore, history suggests that wars rarely unfold as planned, a lesson Trump himself might recall from his own Middle East involvement. An evolving deal with Oman could grant Iran a significant victory, formalizing its control over a vital global energy artery, even without direct US negotiations. This would be a clear win for Iran and a setback for the US, which has struggled to achieve its objectives in the conflict.

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More than revenue from the strait, Iran wants to confirm its management and sovereignty over the strait.