Iran has gained powerful new ability to harm global economy, US intelligence assesses

American intelligence agencies have concluded that Iran now possesses a potent new ability to harm the global economy by being able to close the Strait of Hormuz whenever it chooses, according to three sources familiar with the reports.

This assessment indicates that Iran can replicate such actions in the future. One source described this as granting Iran "de facto control over the strait, which is more powerful than any nuclear weapon." The war has fundamentally altered Tehran's thinking about using similar tactics going forward. Additionally, Iran has realized it can effectively target the energy infrastructure of Gulf nations, a tactic it used successfully during the war, presenting another potential future tool.

While Washington and Tehran appear to have agreed to end hostilities and open the strait, multiple sources suggest Iran is planning an economic "nuclear option" if negotiations with the U.S. falter. This strategy would involve Iran closing the Strait of Hormuz, while the Houthi group in Yemen, a key Iranian proxy, would close the Bab el-Mandeb strait, which connects the Red Sea to the Indian Ocean. This latter action has helped avert a complete collapse over the past four months.

Although there isn't complete consensus within the intelligence community, several sources believe Iran is emboldened by its demonstrated ability to close the strait and strike Gulf energy infrastructure without expending significant resources. Given that Iran has proven both its intent and capability, there is a high probability it will take such action again in the future, two sources familiar with the U.S. intelligence assessments stated.

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Now we have handed Iran de facto control over the strait, which is more powerful than any nuclear weapon.