Iran plans to weaken Kurdish forces in Iraq to prevent disarmament of militias, mantain control

Iran is employing a strategy to undermine Kurdish rivals in Iraq while leveraging militias to preserve its regional influence. This comes as Iraq's new prime minister, Ali al-Zaidi, seeks to bring militia arms under state control, a move that faces strong resistance from the armed groups.

The Iranian-backed militias are actively resisting disarmament efforts. One tactic involves asserting that their weapons are already under state control, as they are part of the state-backed Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF), which they claim functions as a national guard. This allows them to argue against surrendering their arms.

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Our patience is beginning to run out regarding the provocative and irresponsible actions of the prime minister.

Another strategy involves attempting to broaden the disarmament scope to include the Kurdish Peshmerga, the official military force of the autonomous Kurdistan Region. By demanding the Peshmerga also be disarmed, the militias aim to complicate and potentially derail the efforts to disarm other groups. This move is seen as a way to throw a wrench into the government's plans.

Kata'ib Hezbollah, a prominent Iranian-backed militia, has explicitly warned Prime Minister al-Zaidi against "provocative and irresponsible" actions. The militia's spokesperson, Abu Mujahid al-Assaf, suggested that patience was wearing thin and accused the prime minister of failing to grasp the complex regional circumstances. These statements could be interpreted as a threat to the prime minister's safety.

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Assaf also accused Zaidi of failing to understand the ‘complex circumstances’ facing Iraq and the wider region amid warnings to ‘avoid being dragged into what pleases the enemies.’