Iran's drone focus leaves Europe, South Korea vulnerable: French analyst

The recent analysis by Stéphane Audrand, a researcher at France's Institute of International Relations (IFRI) and a former French naval officer, offers a stark warning about the growing drone threat and the inadequate preparedness of Western defense systems. His insights, shared in an email interview with Hankyoreh, underscore a critical vulnerability that extends beyond Europe to nations like South Korea and Japan.

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Europe's defense systems are not fully prepared for the drone threat. Strengthening defenses for critical facilities is urgent, and South Korea and Japan are exposed to the same threat.

Audrand meticulously details Iran's strategic shift towards developing drone and missile capabilities as a direct countermeasure to the superior air power of adversaries such as the United States and Israel. Faced with an insurmountable gap in conventional air superiority, Iran has strategically invested in asymmetric warfare, focusing on drones and ballistic missiles that are both cost-effective and difficult to intercept. This approach, born from observing past conflicts like the Israeli air campaign in Syria and the Gulf Wars, represents a pragmatic adaptation to modern warfare.

The researcher points out a significant disparity in how Western militaries, including the US, approach drone technology. While Western forces prioritize precision strikes to minimize collateral damage, current drone technology still lags in this regard compared to traditional munitions. However, Audrand predicts a future where drones will be employed on a much larger scale, much like the Tomahawk cruise missile's evolution from limited use in the Gulf War to a potential mainstay in future US-Iran conflicts.

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Iran has focused on developing drones and missiles as a response to the overwhelming air power of the US and Israel.

Audrand's assessment of Western air defense systems, designed for high-intensity threats like fighter jets and ballistic missiles, reveals their susceptibility to drones that operate at lower altitudes and can saturate defenses. He notes that while Israel's current air defense has held, it comes at a significant financial cost, raising concerns about Iran's potential to deplete Israel's missile stockpiles. This situation necessitates the urgent development of cost-efficient countermeasures, such as acoustic detection, counter-drone systems, laser-guided rockets, and other specialized weaponry.

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To counter the enemy's air superiority, they needed to develop strike means that are difficult to intercept, affordable, and guarantee at least minimal deterrence.

The researcher's warning about Iran's advancements in launching drones from naval vessels is particularly relevant for South Korea, a nation with extensive coastlines and proximity to North Korea. The potential for adversaries to utilize 'ghost fleets' to launch drone attacks across vast distances poses a direct threat. Audrand suggests that South Korea and Europe, facing similar strategic challenges and direct exposure to drone threats, have a significant opportunity for cooperation in defense technology, drawing parallels to their historical alliance during the Korean War.

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The combination of drones and ballistic missile systems provided the answer for Iran. Iranian-made drones like the Shahed, and remotely piloted loitering munitions (drones), are easy to produce and operate, and offer excellent cost-effectiveness.