Iran’s leadership vacuum leaves two factions battling for control over war’s aim

Despite presenting a united front on war strategy, Iran's leadership is deeply divided over the ultimate objectives and endgame of the ongoing conflict. Recent escalations against U.S. bases and allies demonstrate a shared determination to endure, but sharp differences persist regarding the desired outcome.

On one side are the ultra-hardliners, identified with the "Paydari" movement, which translates to "stability." These ideologues staunchly oppose any negotiations with the United States and advocate for complete victory, seeking to fully enforce the Islamic Republic's societal control. Their stance reflects a rigid adherence to revolutionary principles.

Conversely, a more moderate faction, aligned with President Masoud Pezeshkian and powerful parliament speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, views military pressure as a strategic tool to achieve a negotiated deal with the U.S. This camp is also influenced by concerns over the war's economic toll on Iran and the necessity of adapting to evolving social dynamics within the country. An adviser to Ghalibaf, Mahdi Mohammadi, articulated this view, stating, “Negotiation is a political tool and a complement to military action to force the enemy to a point of compulsion and extract real concessions.”

This open rivalry within the theocracy's leadership signals a significant struggle for control over Iran's postwar future. A critical unknown is the position of the new supreme leader, Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei, who was reportedly injured in a strike that killed his father. Both factions have claimed his support, adding another layer of complexity to the leadership vacuum.

The Supreme National Security Council recently backed a ceasefire deal with the U.S., with 12 out of 13 members approving it, including key figures from the Revolutionary Guard and military. The sole dissenting vote is widely attributed to Saeed Jalili, a prominent Paydari movement figure. However, the ceasefire has faltered amid continued exchanges of strikes and Iran's push for control over the Strait of Hormuz. Frustration also stems from the non-materialization of financial promises, including the release of frozen assets, and the reimposition of the American blockade.

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Negotiation is a political tool and a complement to military action to force the enemy to a point of compulsion and extract real concessions.