Iran's Military Reconstitution Expected After Strikes, Report Says

The full impact of U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran's military in 2026 remains uncertain, but a report from the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) suggests Iran will move quickly to rebuild its forces if the current regime remains in power. Open-source evidence points to significant damage to Iran's military capabilities, with commercial satellite imagery confirming the loss of nearly all its conventional naval surface fleet and damage to key shipyards and naval bases.

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What is clear is that absent regime change, Iran will move quickly to reconstitute.

Commercial satellite imagery reveals that Iran's principal military shipyards and naval bases sustained damage, rendering them partially inoperable due to sunken vessels blocking access. Aboveground weapon production sites and munitions facilities also show signs of damage. While reports vary on the depletion of Iran's drone and missile inventory, recent U.S. government assessments suggest Tehran retains a significant portion of its prewar missile stockpile but a smaller percentage of its drone arsenal.

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Open-source evidence, though incomplete, points to significant degradation of Iran’s military in the recent conflict. Commercial satellite imagery confirms the loss of nearly all of Tehran’s conventional naval surface fleet and further damage to its principal military shipyards and naval bases, which have also been rendered partially inoperable by sunken vessels blocking military berths.

According to the CSIS report, Iran's immediate priority will be clearing its ports, as functional ports are essential for any reconstitution effort. Marine salvage operations are necessary to remove sunken hulls and restore channel access, which is a bottleneck for subsequent rebuilding phases. Iran will also focus on repairing and rebuilding weapons and munitions facilities, a prerequisite for large-scale military production. This involves not only construction but also replacing damaged manufacturing equipment.

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Based on the damage, Iran will look to clearing the ports, as without functional ports, the rest of the reconstitution effort is bottlenecked. Marine salvage operations to remove sunken hulls and restore channel access are necessary for much of what follows.

Drones are identified as central to Iran's military doctrine and asymmetric posture. Restoring and maintaining drone stockpiles is a top priority. With its conventional fleet degraded and shipyards damaged, Tehran is likely to increase its reliance on the Revolutionary Guards' small boat, fast attack, and unmanned maritime capabilities. These platforms are cheaper, faster to build, and better suited for the harassment and denial missions Iran is expected to pursue in the near term. Rebuilding the drone fleet necessitates the sustained import of critical components, such as electronics and engines, and potentially rebuilding domestic production capabilities through imported equipment and materials.

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Drones are central to Iran’s military doctrine, its asymmetric posture, and its military export regime. Restoring and maintaining stockpiles will be a first-order priority.