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🇮🇩 Indonesia /Elections & Politics

Iran War: Fragile Peace Masks Deepening Crises Amidst Political Cohesion

From Tempo · () Indonesian

Translated from Indonesian, summarized and contextualized by DistantNews.

At a glance

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  • A fragile ceasefire is in effect in Iran following a war that began with U.S. and Israeli airstrikes, leading to the destruction of key facilities and the death of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.
  • Iran retaliated with missile and drone strikes and closed the Strait of Hormuz, but despite daily ceasefire violations, internal political cohesion has increased.
  • Experts warn that underlying crises of legitimacy, effectiveness, and distribution persist, and stability may not last as security concerns diminish.

A fragile peace has settled over Iran after a war initiated by U.S. and Israeli airstrikes on February 28, which decimated key military sites and killed Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and other senior figures. The Assembly of Experts has since appointed Khamenei's son, Mojtaba, as the new supreme leader.

I do not see any structural changes in the Islamic Republic over the past 100 days.

— Mohammad GhaediAn Iran expert and lecturer at George Washington University specializing in Middle Eastern politics and international relations, commenting on the post-war situation.

Tehran responded forcefully, launching extensive missile and drone attacks against Israel and U.S. bases across the Gulf. The conflict also saw Iran close the Strait of Hormuz, a vital artery for global oil and gas exports, as a strategic maneuver. Although a ceasefire took effect on April 8, hostilities continue to flare up almost daily.

The level of cohesion among political elites we see today is relatively rare in the post-revolutionary period. That cohesion has been one of the main sources of resilience.

— Mohammad GhaediExplaining the increased unity among Iranian political elites following the war.

Despite the ongoing violations, Iran expert Mohammad Ghaedi notes a surprising increase in political cohesion. "The level of cohesion among political elites we see today is relatively rare in the post-revolutionary period," Ghaedi, a lecturer at George Washington University, told DW. He believes the war has eased some divisions among elites and between the state and society, contributing to the regime's resilience.

The Islamic Republic still faces major challenges, including crises of legitimacy, effectiveness, and distribution. As concerns about security and survival recede, these underlying problems are likely to become more visible again and make governance increasingly difficult.

— Mohammad GhaediWarning about the persistent underlying issues facing the Iranian government.

However, Ghaedi cautions against assuming lasting stability. "The Islamic Republic still faces major challenges, including crises of legitimacy, effectiveness, and distribution," he warned. "As concerns about security and survival recede, these underlying problems are likely to become more visible again and make governance increasingly difficult." Meanwhile, nightly pro-regime rallies organized across the country aim to project an image of restored control, though some residents describe them as disruptive noise, and activists point to lingering anger over the brutal crackdown on recent anti-government protests.

Before 11 p.m., it's nearly impossible to sleep. It's loud outside, and it's exhausting.

— Tehran residentDescribing the nightly pro-regime rallies organized across the country.
DistantNews Editorial

Originally published by Tempo in Indonesian. Translated, summarized, and contextualized by our editorial team with added local perspective. Read our editorial standards.

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