Is a Major Conflict Brewing Between Two Superpowers? 'Tokyo is Preparing for the Worst'

Tokyo is preparing for the worst as China's power grows, prompting Japan to rearm and forge new alliances. This strategic shift signals a potential end to the decades of pacifism that have ensured regional peace. The tension has reached a critical point, with Japanese politician Sanae Takaichi stating last November that Japan would activate its defense forces in the event of a Chinese attack on Taiwan. This declaration has amplified concerns about a potential conflict in East Asia. Susanne Weigelin-Schwertzig, a sinologist, suggests the situation is complex, involving both escalating tensions and a continuation of long-standing rivalries. She draws a parallel between the current geopolitical landscape and the late 19th century, characterizing it as a clash between a maritime power focused on controlling sea routes and a continental power prioritizing territorial expansion. During the late 19th century, Japan capitalized on the weakness of continental China (then under the Qing dynasty) to assert regional dominance after the First Sino-Japanese War. Today, the roles have reversed, with China rising and Japan grappling with the perception of being an "economic power in decline," a significant fear among Japanese elites, according to Weigelin-Schwertzig. Taiwan lies at the heart of this struggle for supremacy. Once Japan's first colony, the island is now strategically crucial to the Pacific. Weigelin-Schwertzig describes Taiwan as being in an "existence in the zone of contact." If China gains control of Taiwan, it asserts dominance over this part of the Pacific. Conversely, if Japan influences Taiwan, it can create an unbroken "first island chain" from Japan to the Philippines, uniting against China. For Beijing, this island barrier is seen as a stranglehold, potentially blocking its navy in a conflict. China's rapid construction of artificial islands in the South China Sea is an attempt to break this potential encirclement. Media narratives diverge sharply: Tokyo's press portrays Japan as a victim of Chinese aggression, while Beijing's publications present the opposite view. Weigelin-Schwertzig notes that the mainstream narrative in Japanese newspapers is one of feeling threatened by China, whereas in China, the perception is reversed. This divergence stems from Japan's decision, influenced by the late Prime Minister Shinzo Abe and current politicians like Sanae Takaichi, to no longer retreat. A segment of Japan's elite believes that Japan can survive by...

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Ako Kinezi stave ruku na Tajvan, oni time polažu pravo na kontrolu nad ovim dijelom Pacifika. No, ako Japan ima utjecaj na Tajvanu, onda Japanci mogu reći: 'Prva otočna linija proteže se neprekinuto od Japana do Filipina i svi smo ujedinjeni protiv Kine'.