Is Russia preparing for a new mobilization?

Ukrainian leadership and some independent Russian publications are discussing the possibility of a new mobilization in Russia, though Russian authorities deny such plans. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, citing intelligence reports, stated that Russian authorities intend to "expand mobilization" this autumn. He believes President Vladimir Putin is preparing to recruit a new wave of Russian citizens for the war against Ukraine.

"He is hiding this behind other formulations and signals, but he is preparing," Zelenskyy said. "It is important that we, together with our partners, exert sufficient pressure on Russia so that the idea of ending aggression and peace prevails over the idea of a new Russian mobilization." According to him, the Russian army is losing more soldiers on the front than it is recruiting, yet Putin reportedly intends to intensify attacks and expand the conflict. The decree on "partial mobilization" issued by Putin in autumn 2022 remains in effect, with the Russian presidential administration confirming in 2023 that the document also regulates other necessary measures for the armed forces.

In late June, the independent Russian publication Verstka and the Russian-language portal Vazhnye Istorii (Important Stories), based in Latvia, published an investigation suggesting that, amid difficulties in recruiting professional soldiers, discussions about a possible mobilization are taking place "behind the scenes" within the Russian leadership. A source in the Moscow city administration told Verstka that the city sent 1,708 people to the front in April and 1,378 in May 2026, figures approximately a thousand lower than the same period the previous year. The downward trend reportedly continued in June.

Vazhnye Istorii concluded that the recruitment rate of contract soldiers has decreased by well over half in the last quarter of 2025 compared to the same period in 2024 and continued to fall in early 2026. Journalists also learned from regional sources that the number of people applying to sign a contract with the army is declining. Soldiers interviewed by Verstka stated that many contract soldiers sent to the front this year are "unprepared for combat," and numerous new arrivals reportedly desert after reaching the front lines. One mobilized soldier claimed that units are occupied "at best 30-40% full."

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He is hiding this behind other formulations and signals, but he is preparing. It is important that we, together with our partners, exert sufficient pressure on Russia so that the idea of ending aggression and peace prevails over the idea of a new Russian mobilization.