Is Russia’s Alleged Hybrid War on the EU a Genuine Threat?

Germany’s accusation that Russia was involved in an attempted drone attack on Leipzig-Halle Airport has brought Europe’s debate over hybrid warfare into sharper focus. Berlin says the incident marks a new low in relations with Moscow since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine.

Three drones were involved. An alert bus driver found one, carrying 600 grams of military-grade explosives, beside a Ukrainian cargo plane. A second drone collided with a cargo plane in flight, while a third, also showing traces of explosives, was discovered in a nearby field.

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The means used, such as the drone configuration, components, explosives and detonation systems, are known to us from other hybrid operations by Russia and its war against Ukraine.

German Interior Minister Alexander Dobrindt said the drones’ configuration, components, explosives and detonation systems matched those known from other Russian hybrid operations and from Russia’s war in Ukraine. Germany responded by closing the Russian consulate in Bonn and a Russian cultural centre in Berlin.

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Proceeding down a path of further escalation.

Moscow denies involvement. President Vladimir Putin accused Chancellor Friedrich Merz of trying to distract voters before a key regional election in Saxony-Anhalt, where the Russia-sympathetic AfD is expected to perform strongly. Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said Berlin had provided no evidence and was “proceeding down a path of further escalation.”

German media later reported that police had identified two suspects through DNA traces: a Belarusian national with a Russian passport and a Russian-Latvian dual national. The episode reflects the central dilemma of alleged hybrid attacks, which are small enough to offer deniability but serious enough to unsettle European governments. Russia’s Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov recently said, “We will escalate our methods to destroy everything that helps Ukraine’s military coming from the West. In fact, we are already doing it.”

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We will escalate our methods to destroy everything that helps Ukraine’s military coming from the West. In fact, we are already doing it.