Isobel Hadley-Kamptz: The firewall against Nazism has fallen, and the far right could soon lead a German state

The firewall against Germany’s far right has begun to look less secure. The Alternative for Germany, or AfD, could become the largest party in another German state, and in Saxony-Anhalt it may even win an outright majority.

The development follows the party’s 2024 victory in Thuringia, where it failed to take power because other parties refused to cooperate with a movement that, among other things, openly reuses old Nazi slogans. Saxony-Anhalt could be different. The AfD is polling at between 40% and 45% there, according to the article.

The state has long offered fertile ground for the far right. In the late 1990s, the far-right German People’s Union won almost 13% there. Many of its former supporters now back the AfD. That support also reflects the economic and social strains that followed reunification. Eastern Germany experienced lower growth and higher unemployment than the west for many years after the initial reunification boom. Saxony-Anhalt has one of Germany’s oldest populations, while young people, especially young women, are leaving. The resulting imbalance makes it harder for young men to find partners and complicates the maintenance of schools and care homes.

Nostalgia for East Germany also plays a role. Three-quarters of AfD supporters in eastern Germany believe reunification made their lives worse. That may help explain why the party’s calls to end support for Ukraine and normalize relations with Russia do not necessarily alienate its voters. Allegations that the party has repeatedly leaked secret information to the Kremlin may not trouble voters who already look back fondly on the former German Democratic Republic.

The AfD is not confined to the east. Several opinion polls put it ahead nationally as well. Reaching power in Berlin would still require major political changes, particularly the Christian Democratic Union tearing down its firewall against the far right. But the article asks who can still feel certain that such a step will never happen.