Israel and Iran flare-up tests Trump's grip and could strengthen Tehran's negotiating hand

Israel's retaliatory strikes within Iran over the weekend, occurring even after US President Donald Trump urged Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to hold back, threaten to plunge the Middle East into another direct confrontation between Tehran and Washington. This marks the first time Israel has bombed sites in Iran since a ceasefire in April, following Iran's missile barrage against Israel, which Tehran stated was in response to Israeli strikes on Beirut.

The current volatile web of alliances and fragile ceasefires underscores the region's dangerous instability, more than three months after the US and Israel initiated their campaign against Iran. The escalation also points to three key aspects of the conflict's trajectory: Trump's inability or unwillingness to rein in his Israeli ally as publicly claimed, a fact not lost on Tehran, which seeks to exploit any divergence between the US and Israel. Tehran appears willing to risk retaliation on its own soil to intertwine the fates of the US-Iran war with the conflict between Israel and Hezbollah. Furthermore, Trump's desired nuclear deal with Iran is not imminent, as Tehran senses his current risk appetite is low and aims to extract more concessions from Washington at the negotiating table.

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If I tell him to do something, he does it.

Following Iran's missile attack on Sunday, Trump reportedly told journalists he would immediately call Netanyahu to advise against retaliation, implying an Israeli counterattack could jeopardize his delicate diplomacy with Tehran. Hours later, Israel struck Iran. Trump later told the BBC that Israeli planes were already en route when he spoke with Netanyahu, denying that the Israeli prime minister had defied him. "If I tell him to do something, he does it," Trump asserted.

While one prevailing narrative suggests Netanyahu defied Trump, the reality is likely more nuanced. Israel's subsequent actions imply Washington provided at least limited consent, perhaps with the expectation of caution and a single round of strikes. Veteran US negotiator Aaron David Miller suggested to the BBC that Trump gave Netanyahu a "blink" signal, indicating a degree of tacit approval for a limited response.

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Trump gave Netanyahu a "blink" signal