Israel cannot wait forever for peace as Iran rapidly rebuilds its missile program

Iran is rebuilding its military faster than Israel expected as diplomacy stalls, raising the cost of every month that passes without an agreement to curb Tehran. The clock has been ticking for two months since the June “ceasefire” between the US and Iran, and still the Islamic Republic is rearming. That should dominate Israel’s thinking about every day that passes without an agreement capable of restraining the Iranian regime. Israeli defense officials have been shocked by the speed with which Iran is recovering from the damage inflicted during the war. The concern stretches across several parts of its military infrastructure, including the ballistic missile program, which remains an immediate strategic threat to Israel. Israel and the United States struck more than 2,600 missile and military-industrial targets during the roughly 40-day war, carrying out some 30,000 attacks. Israeli officials believed the scale of the destruction had crippled Iran’s ability to restore its military industries at anything like their previous pace. Iran has already confounded such assessments before. After Israeli strikes in October 2024, officials believed missile production had been set back by a year or more. By early 2025, production had recovered. Following far greater attacks in June 2025, Israel again believed the production network had been crippled for years. And yet, as it always seems to, Iran rebuilt again. Now it is confirmed that Iran is producing new weapons at a much faster pace than Israeli planners anticipated. If it can return to manufacturing 100 to 300 ballistic missiles a month, it could restore its arsenal to June 2025 levels by early or mid-2027. That is the clock Israel must watch. Friday brought another reminder of how badly the diplomatic clock is running. Transit through the Strait of Hormuz appeared to slow almost to a standstill after two more ships were attacked. The United Arab Emirates blames Iran for attacks on two vessels belonging to the state-owned Abu Dhabi National Oil Company, while shipping through the strait remains a fraction of its prewar level. Tehran continues to use Hormuz as leverage, demanding sanctions relief and the release of funds.