Israel's greatest challenge isn't winning, it's ending the Iran war once and for all

Israel is entering a more perilous phase of its conflict with Iran, characterized by fewer proxy fronts and an increase in direct confrontations. The initial seven theaters of conflict identified in December 2023 have narrowed to four significant fronts, intensifying the pressure on Israel and its allies.

In late 2023, Israel's defense minister outlined seven theaters: Gaza, Lebanon, Syria, Judea and Samaria, Iraq, Yemen, and Iran. However, the situation has evolved dramatically. The Assad dynasty in Syria fell in December 2024, and Iran-aligned militias in Iraq have scaled back operations, partly due to the risk of U.S. retaliation. Gaza remains under a ceasefire, with Hamas refusing to disarm.

The remaining direct fronts are Iran itself, which has launched extensive missile and drone attacks; Lebanon, where Hezbollah remains a key adversary and fighting has escalated to Beirut; Yemen, where the Houthis continue to target Israeli cities from afar; and critical maritime chokepoints like Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb, where the conflict impacts global shipping and involves the United States heavily.

This shift is partly due to the elimination of key figures like Qassem Soleimani and Iran's supreme leader, Ali Khamenei, in February 2025. The loss of these leaders and the dismantling of Iran's proxy network have left Israel facing Tehran more directly. The absence of intermediaries makes the war harder to contain and raises concerns about its potential to escalate globally, particularly concerning the maritime routes.

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The honest answer is fewer than before, and that is what makes this phase more dangerous than the last.