Israel's new Syria dilemma: Netanyahu's Russia playbook faces 'Turkey test'

Israel's strategic calculus in Syria faces a new dilemma following the overthrow of Bashar al-Assad's regime and the subsequent shift in regional dynamics. For nearly a decade, a deconfliction mechanism established in 2015 between Israel and Russia successfully managed their competing interests in Syria, preventing direct military confrontation.

This understanding allowed Israel to conduct hundreds of strikes against Iranian and Hezbollah efforts to establish launchpads against it, while Russia maintained its regional foothold by supporting Assad. The informal agreement operated on a principle of mutual non-interference within defined spheres of interest. Russia tolerated Israeli actions as long as they did not threaten Assad's rule, and Israel refrained from targeting the Syrian regime, preserving its freedom of action against Iran and Hezbollah.

However, the overthrow of Assad in December 2024 by forces led by Ahmed al-Sharaa has fundamentally altered the landscape. The deconfliction mechanism, which relied on the presence of a stable Syrian regime aligned with Russia, is now being tested. The situation is further complicated by the emergence of new regional players and shifting alliances.

This new reality was underscored by a recent Israeli strike on the Abu al-Duhur air base in Idlib province. According to foreign media reports, Israel believed the base was being prepared for Turkish forces, a development that prompted the strike just hours after a Turkish military delegation visited the site. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu stated, "We will not tolerate a Turkish military buildup exten...", indicating Israel's concern over potential new threats emerging from its northern border.

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We will not tolerate a Turkish military buildup exten