Israel's political map fractured by Oct. 7 war, next election may redraw it

The political map of Israel, long defined by established camps, is undergoing a significant transformation in the wake of the October 7 war. Traditional alignments are blurring, with issues once central to the secular center-left now being adopted by figures on the right.

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Pressure, I wrote, makes people dig in, and sometimes makes them worse.

For decades, the issue of ultra-Orthodox (haredi) conscription was a key platform for secular parties. However, this has shifted dramatically. Brig.-Gen. (res.) Ofer Winter, a prominent figure, has launched a new party, "People of Israel," placing haredi conscription at its core. He is joined by a bereaved mother from the Eli settlement, a prominent campaigner on the issue, signaling a new coalition of concerns.

This shift in political ownership of issues is not arbitrary; it reflects a deeper change within the country's political and social fabric. The demand for a state commission of inquiry into the October 7 failures, initially an opposition demand, is now also being voiced from the right. Furthermore, individuals like Yoseph Haddad, an Arab Christian and wounded veteran, are positioning themselves on right-wing lists, aiming for significant roles. The confluence of reserve service, bereavement, and religious identity is reshaping political credentials.

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The war changed my mind about something I’d argued in print for years.

Living in Gush Etzion, an area traditionally considered safe territory for the Religious Zionist Party, the author observes these changes firsthand. Many who won primaries in that party reside in the area, as do the voters who supported them. This proximity to the political shifts underscores the profound impact of recent events on the very foundations of Israeli politics, suggesting that the next election could reveal a dramatically reshuffled political landscape.

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An issue doesn’t wander from one camp to the other unless something has happened to the camps.