Israel's restraint in Gaza may give Hamas the opening it needs to take its power back - analysis

The Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) have achieved substantial gains in the Gaza Strip over the past year, developing a sophisticated system for locating and destroying Hamas infrastructure both above and below ground. The IDF now controls an estimated 65% to 70% of Gaza. Southern Command chief Maj.-Gen. Yaniv Asor has pursued a clear policy of thwarting terrorism through airstrikes, focusing on operatives involved in the October 7 attacks and those rebuilding Hamas's military capabilities. This strategy relies on precise intelligence from the Shin Bet and IDF Intelligence Directorate, combined with aerial firepower.

However, recent weeks have seen a significant shift in Israel's approach to Gaza, influenced by pressure from Hamas leadership and international actors including Qatar, Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and the United States. The Israeli government approved the entry of approximately 200 members of a multinational force into Gaza before Hamas had disarmed or transferred authority to a technocratic government. This decision followed criticism from within the defense establishment regarding the government's pragmatism towards a peace plan while seemingly ignoring Hamas's potential to re-establish itself.

Furthermore, a decision was made to completely halt targeted killings in Gaza without presenting alternative strategies. This policy shift has drawn criticism towards the Israeli government for preventing Palestinian Authority involvement in Gaza, and towards the policies of the Trump administration, envoy Nikolay Mladenov, and the technocratic government for rushing rehabilitation efforts. Critics contend that these actions lack a strong framework to prevent Hamas from returning to rule the entire strip, potentially allowing hostile actors like Qatar and Turkey to expand their influence. The analysis suggests Israel's current restraint may inadvertently provide Hamas the opportunity to regain power.

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